With the Astros return to the NLCS, it is inevitable that someone will wonder aloud whether Carlos Beltran now regrets his decision to turn down the Astros offer and sign with the Mets given the way the season turned out. While the curiosity is understandable, it is answered simply by pointing out that had Beltran performed as expected in only half of the one and two run games played by the Mets this season, it would have been the Mets and not the Astros which would have qualified won the National League wild card and moved on to play the Braves in the Division series and perhaps the Cardinals in the NLCS.
Beyond the standard set of statistics (e.g. BA, OBP, SLG) that alone tell a tale of underachievement, Beltran’s situational statistics underscore his failure to deliver in the clutch and when something other than the weak ground ball to second or the strike out would likely have had a dramatic impact on the game, the standings and the season.
His numbers with runners in scoring position generally and with men on third with less than two outs are actually better than expected and, in some cases, actually pretty good. For example, Beltran batted .298 with runners in scoring position and .452 (19 for 42) with runners on third and less than two outs. However, with two outs and a runner on second, his average dropped to .224 (11 for 42) and given that in many instances that meant that the momentum built by a Reyes single and stolen base was squandered by his failure to produce in this circumstance, the poor production, on many occasions, sucked the life out of a rally and led to a loss.
Perhaps more importantly, his numbers in late innings when the game is on the line are not good and, again, likely made the difference between the team making and missing the play-offs. While his “Close and Late” average is actually generally acceptable (.298), his performance late in games that turned out to be one or two run losses was down-right horrible. All told, the team played in 73 one and two run games with a 22 – 24 record in one run games and a 13 – 14 record in two run games. Of the 38 one and two run games that the team lost in 2005, Beltran played in 33 games. Looking more closely at the “Close and Late” statistic (at bats in the 7th inning or later with the team either ahead by one run, tied or with the tying run on deck) and looking at those games that the Mets went on to lose by one or two runs, Beltran had 41 at bats in those games and produced a .195 average with no extra base hits (a .205 slugging percentage and a measly .449 OPS) and only 2 RBIs. As a reflection of the teams offensive woes in those losses, Beltran had only 7 at bats with runners in scoring position but even there produced but a .286 batting average (2 for 7) including a lazy fly ball to right with the bases loaded and one out in the 7th inning of the September 5th game in Atlanta in the midst of the team’s September free fall.
I did not undertake this examination for the purpose of blaming Beltran for his lackluster performance during the 2005 season. He is not the first athlete to come to New York after signing a big contract and then to have struggled during his first season. New York is a very difficult place to play and the transition unquestionably a difficult one, no matter how self-assured the athlete. Thus, while I am somewhat disappointed in Beltran’s performance, I am willing to accept and understand that this was his first year and that he will return to form in the 2006 season. Nevertheless, if one is tempted to ask about Beltran’s decision to sign with New York rather than returning to Houston, the better question is why Houston is in the play offs and why the Mets fell short. While there are certainly a multitude of factors to consider in answering that question, one part of the answer lies with Beltran alone.
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