This article appeared in the October 10, 2005 edition of the New York Daily News
Japanese standout may catch Mets' eye
One of the hotter topics of early hot-stove talk has been Kenji Jojima, the best catcher (maybe ever) in Japan, who is a free agent and said to be ready to jump to the U.S.
The 29-year old Jojima is a career .300 hitter in Japan, averaging 30 homers a season for the Fukuoka Hawks, who are managed by Japanese icon Sadaharu Oh. Jojima suffered a broken shin in September, but major league teams are more concerned with the apparently severe tendinitis in his shoulder that hindered his throwing for much of the year.
Because of the language barrier and his unfamiliarity with the pitchers here, it would seem Jojima would have to start out as a backup catcher in the majors - to which one major-league exec said: "He'd never accept. He's used to being treated like a star, which he is over there, to the point where his teammates can't stand him. That wouldn't be a problem for him here since he probably wouldn't be doing much communicating with them."
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The Mets need to fill their catching position is certainly pressing given Piazza’s departure and while the pickings in the Major Leagues are not bountiful, one can only hope that team management resists the temptation to visit the Japanese leagues to satisfy their needs. While Kenji Jojima is probably an all-star in Japan, I would be very hesitant to bring him on board and entrust him with the pitching staff. Beyond the Kaz Mat-like numbers and the bum shoulder, the team should think twice and then think some more about how the cultural differences between Japan and the United States (both on the field and off) will affect the way that a catcher handles a pitching staff, particularly one with veterans like Martinez and Glavine. Those differences only become more pronounced the closer the position player is to the plate. The affect of those differences have little, if any, impact upon how outfielders like Ichiro and Matsui approach the game. The same can’t be said for a pivotal position like shortstop. While Matsui’s shortcomings can be hidden at second base (where the White Sox Iguchi has also managed to thrive without being forced to manage the infield), the same could not be said for his play at shortstop last year where his cultural bias, born of years of training at play at shortstop in Japan were proven to be inadequate to manage the infield at the major league level. As important as the shortstop is to the infield, the catcher is perhaps the most important position on the field. The risk of the Matsui experience being repeated in the person of Kenji Jojima, in my view, is too great for the team to invest its future in an unproven catcher who will almost certainly need to serve in backup position for a year or two before he is in a position to assume a starting role.
The options for the Mets are not many. Both Molina and Hernandez will certainly garner a lot of attention from the Mets though I’m not sure that they are the answer to the Mets needs. Benji Molina is also opening eyes with his play during the play offs and has almost undoubtedly enhanced his value on the open market and while he is a terrific defensive catcher, I’m not sure he is much of an upgrade over Ramon Castro, particularly considering the amount of money he will demand to sign. Ramon Hernandez is an obvious alternative to Molina though his lifetime BA is just .262 and his homerun and RBI production moderate at best (have we been spoiled by Mike Piazza even in his worst years?) While Ramon Castro definitely opened eyes with his play throughout the season, he doesn’t have the look and feel of an every day player yet in contrast to the available candidates, he may ultimately prove to be the best bang for the buck out there.
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
Beltran Performance Numbers
With the Astros return to the NLCS, it is inevitable that someone will wonder aloud whether Carlos Beltran now regrets his decision to turn down the Astros offer and sign with the Mets given the way the season turned out. While the curiosity is understandable, it is answered simply by pointing out that had Beltran performed as expected in only half of the one and two run games played by the Mets this season, it would have been the Mets and not the Astros which would have qualified won the National League wild card and moved on to play the Braves in the Division series and perhaps the Cardinals in the NLCS.
Beyond the standard set of statistics (e.g. BA, OBP, SLG) that alone tell a tale of underachievement, Beltran’s situational statistics underscore his failure to deliver in the clutch and when something other than the weak ground ball to second or the strike out would likely have had a dramatic impact on the game, the standings and the season.
His numbers with runners in scoring position generally and with men on third with less than two outs are actually better than expected and, in some cases, actually pretty good. For example, Beltran batted .298 with runners in scoring position and .452 (19 for 42) with runners on third and less than two outs. However, with two outs and a runner on second, his average dropped to .224 (11 for 42) and given that in many instances that meant that the momentum built by a Reyes single and stolen base was squandered by his failure to produce in this circumstance, the poor production, on many occasions, sucked the life out of a rally and led to a loss.
Perhaps more importantly, his numbers in late innings when the game is on the line are not good and, again, likely made the difference between the team making and missing the play-offs. While his “Close and Late” average is actually generally acceptable (.298), his performance late in games that turned out to be one or two run losses was down-right horrible. All told, the team played in 73 one and two run games with a 22 – 24 record in one run games and a 13 – 14 record in two run games. Of the 38 one and two run games that the team lost in 2005, Beltran played in 33 games. Looking more closely at the “Close and Late” statistic (at bats in the 7th inning or later with the team either ahead by one run, tied or with the tying run on deck) and looking at those games that the Mets went on to lose by one or two runs, Beltran had 41 at bats in those games and produced a .195 average with no extra base hits (a .205 slugging percentage and a measly .449 OPS) and only 2 RBIs. As a reflection of the teams offensive woes in those losses, Beltran had only 7 at bats with runners in scoring position but even there produced but a .286 batting average (2 for 7) including a lazy fly ball to right with the bases loaded and one out in the 7th inning of the September 5th game in Atlanta in the midst of the team’s September free fall.
I did not undertake this examination for the purpose of blaming Beltran for his lackluster performance during the 2005 season. He is not the first athlete to come to New York after signing a big contract and then to have struggled during his first season. New York is a very difficult place to play and the transition unquestionably a difficult one, no matter how self-assured the athlete. Thus, while I am somewhat disappointed in Beltran’s performance, I am willing to accept and understand that this was his first year and that he will return to form in the 2006 season. Nevertheless, if one is tempted to ask about Beltran’s decision to sign with New York rather than returning to Houston, the better question is why Houston is in the play offs and why the Mets fell short. While there are certainly a multitude of factors to consider in answering that question, one part of the answer lies with Beltran alone.
Beyond the standard set of statistics (e.g. BA, OBP, SLG) that alone tell a tale of underachievement, Beltran’s situational statistics underscore his failure to deliver in the clutch and when something other than the weak ground ball to second or the strike out would likely have had a dramatic impact on the game, the standings and the season.
His numbers with runners in scoring position generally and with men on third with less than two outs are actually better than expected and, in some cases, actually pretty good. For example, Beltran batted .298 with runners in scoring position and .452 (19 for 42) with runners on third and less than two outs. However, with two outs and a runner on second, his average dropped to .224 (11 for 42) and given that in many instances that meant that the momentum built by a Reyes single and stolen base was squandered by his failure to produce in this circumstance, the poor production, on many occasions, sucked the life out of a rally and led to a loss.
Perhaps more importantly, his numbers in late innings when the game is on the line are not good and, again, likely made the difference between the team making and missing the play-offs. While his “Close and Late” average is actually generally acceptable (.298), his performance late in games that turned out to be one or two run losses was down-right horrible. All told, the team played in 73 one and two run games with a 22 – 24 record in one run games and a 13 – 14 record in two run games. Of the 38 one and two run games that the team lost in 2005, Beltran played in 33 games. Looking more closely at the “Close and Late” statistic (at bats in the 7th inning or later with the team either ahead by one run, tied or with the tying run on deck) and looking at those games that the Mets went on to lose by one or two runs, Beltran had 41 at bats in those games and produced a .195 average with no extra base hits (a .205 slugging percentage and a measly .449 OPS) and only 2 RBIs. As a reflection of the teams offensive woes in those losses, Beltran had only 7 at bats with runners in scoring position but even there produced but a .286 batting average (2 for 7) including a lazy fly ball to right with the bases loaded and one out in the 7th inning of the September 5th game in Atlanta in the midst of the team’s September free fall.
I did not undertake this examination for the purpose of blaming Beltran for his lackluster performance during the 2005 season. He is not the first athlete to come to New York after signing a big contract and then to have struggled during his first season. New York is a very difficult place to play and the transition unquestionably a difficult one, no matter how self-assured the athlete. Thus, while I am somewhat disappointed in Beltran’s performance, I am willing to accept and understand that this was his first year and that he will return to form in the 2006 season. Nevertheless, if one is tempted to ask about Beltran’s decision to sign with New York rather than returning to Houston, the better question is why Houston is in the play offs and why the Mets fell short. While there are certainly a multitude of factors to consider in answering that question, one part of the answer lies with Beltran alone.
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
Year in Review
Year in Review
Contrary to the popular view expressed on sports talk radio in New York that the Mets’ 2005 season was a failure, the season, in my view, was actually a rousing success. Rome wasn’t built in a day and neither is a successful baseball franchise, particularly one that has been plagued by numerous mis-steps by management over the past four or five years. New York is definitely a tough town in which to play baseball. The standard is set by the Yankees and the media is quick to beat down the Mets when they fail to play to the standard created by a franchise and its fan base which believes that all other teams in the sport exist to nourish the Yankee monster. To their credit, despite the pressure of Mike and Mad Dog, the Yankee lackey, Michael Kay (late of ESPN radio) and even Murray Chass of the New York Times, the Mets have stayed true to their recent course set by Omar Minaya and neither over-reached or promised more than they knew they could deliver. Finishing four games above break even is a significant accomplishment for this team, regardless of the criticism, and a terrific starting point for the years of success I believe will follow.
There are without questions areas of the team that need improvement and it will certainly be interesting to watch the pieces of the puzzle gradually come together over the next few months. It may very well be that as with 2005, the team will emerge in Port St. Lucie in February 2006 still a work in progress and while it is probably unacceptable to many in the media and those impatient for a return to 1986, I don’t think a World Series ring is necessary to make 2006 a success so long as the team continues to improve and play hard.
I must point out that I am and have been a season ticket holder for more than fifteen years and thus feel that I have a vested interest in the team’s progress and that they, in turn, have almost a fiduciary duty to me and to all fans (not the ones who injured themselves first jumping on to and then off the bandwagon as it moved through Florida, Atlanta and St. Louis in September) to make every reasonable effort to improve and compete.
The bullpen certainly needs attention. Braden Looper underwent shoulder surgery on Monday past and hopes to be ready for spring training. Hopefully, the team will opt to buy out his contract for $250,000 rather than invest another $5 million in a closer who can’t get left handed hitters out. That he was injured and chose not only not to tell anyone but repeatedly reported himself available only to blow saves and/or create problems for himself and the team itself warrants his “dismissal” from the team. While a number of established closers may be on the market (e.g. Billy Wagner and BJ Ryan), I think serious consideration needs to be given to using Aaron Heilman as the everyday closer. One needs only listen to Pat Burrell telling Matty Loughlin that Heilman’s stuff is nearly unhittable to realize that this kid, while certainly with starter’s “stuff”, may be the team’s answer to the closer question. He certainly merits a look given his performance over the last weeks of the season when the team was ruining the Phillies’ and Marlin’s pennant hopes.
I would also not rush to spend money to find a new first baseman. It may very well be that particularly after a season of winter ball, Mike Jacobs’, already an adequate first baseman, will improve enough to provide the team with a more complete package than he provided over the past two months of the season. It is certainly a very tough call for Minaya who may be able to pry someone like Sean Casey away from the Reds. If, however, a trade for Casey or someone like requires the Mets to part with real prospects, Jacobs, who I think is the real deal (player of the year and believed to have the best swing in the organization) may certainly be the way to go.
Catcher needs an upgrade and while I am one who believes that Mike Piazza still has something to give, if only on a part time basis, I nevertheless believe that catcher is the one position that the Mets should be willing to spend their money. The Padres’ Ramon Hernandez will be a free agent this winter and is someone who would certainly fit well into the team’s plans.
Second base also needs an upgrade though I don’t know if (a) the Mets will be willing to retain Matsui and not play him and/or (b) whether the Mets will be able to unload the former Japanese star. New York certainly does not look like a good fit for the guy (who, I believe, can be successful in the United States) and perhaps he would be able to salvage his US career elsewhere. Assuming Matsui can be moved, the focus should be upon extracting Soriano from the Texas Rangers. I have no doubt that Soriano will prosper (not that he’s suffering all that much in Texas) by a return to New York and Willie Randolph. He is a defensive liability who would probably benefit from Willie’s attention (in much the same way that Reyes benefited from Randolph’s counsel). The question, of course, is how much Soriano will cost the Mets. The Rangers remain in desperate need of pitching to support their terrific offense and it may be that the Mets will be asked to part with Jae Seo and Aaron Heilman, among others (possibly Anderson Hernandez, as well) in order to complete a trade with Texas. I would certainly be sorry to see Heilman go, but, on balance, Soriano’s bat in a lineup with Reyes, Wright, Floyd, Beltran and Cameron would make the offense as potent as any in the NL.
Finally, counter-balancing any move to bring Soriano to the Mets would be a push by Minaya to work out a trade with Boston for Manny Ramirez. Absent including Beltran in the deal, I don’t think the Mets (or any team, for that matter) has enough pieces to complete trades for both Soriano and Ramirez. If the push were for Ramirez, it would likely cost the Mets not only the same players who would go to Texas for Soriano, but either Floyd or Cameron, as well. Honestly, I’m not sure a Ramirez trade is in the team’s best interest despite his obvious Hall of Fame numbers.
Met fans should be thrilled with all that the team accomplished this year.
Contrary to the popular view expressed on sports talk radio in New York that the Mets’ 2005 season was a failure, the season, in my view, was actually a rousing success. Rome wasn’t built in a day and neither is a successful baseball franchise, particularly one that has been plagued by numerous mis-steps by management over the past four or five years. New York is definitely a tough town in which to play baseball. The standard is set by the Yankees and the media is quick to beat down the Mets when they fail to play to the standard created by a franchise and its fan base which believes that all other teams in the sport exist to nourish the Yankee monster. To their credit, despite the pressure of Mike and Mad Dog, the Yankee lackey, Michael Kay (late of ESPN radio) and even Murray Chass of the New York Times, the Mets have stayed true to their recent course set by Omar Minaya and neither over-reached or promised more than they knew they could deliver. Finishing four games above break even is a significant accomplishment for this team, regardless of the criticism, and a terrific starting point for the years of success I believe will follow.
There are without questions areas of the team that need improvement and it will certainly be interesting to watch the pieces of the puzzle gradually come together over the next few months. It may very well be that as with 2005, the team will emerge in Port St. Lucie in February 2006 still a work in progress and while it is probably unacceptable to many in the media and those impatient for a return to 1986, I don’t think a World Series ring is necessary to make 2006 a success so long as the team continues to improve and play hard.
I must point out that I am and have been a season ticket holder for more than fifteen years and thus feel that I have a vested interest in the team’s progress and that they, in turn, have almost a fiduciary duty to me and to all fans (not the ones who injured themselves first jumping on to and then off the bandwagon as it moved through Florida, Atlanta and St. Louis in September) to make every reasonable effort to improve and compete.
The bullpen certainly needs attention. Braden Looper underwent shoulder surgery on Monday past and hopes to be ready for spring training. Hopefully, the team will opt to buy out his contract for $250,000 rather than invest another $5 million in a closer who can’t get left handed hitters out. That he was injured and chose not only not to tell anyone but repeatedly reported himself available only to blow saves and/or create problems for himself and the team itself warrants his “dismissal” from the team. While a number of established closers may be on the market (e.g. Billy Wagner and BJ Ryan), I think serious consideration needs to be given to using Aaron Heilman as the everyday closer. One needs only listen to Pat Burrell telling Matty Loughlin that Heilman’s stuff is nearly unhittable to realize that this kid, while certainly with starter’s “stuff”, may be the team’s answer to the closer question. He certainly merits a look given his performance over the last weeks of the season when the team was ruining the Phillies’ and Marlin’s pennant hopes.
I would also not rush to spend money to find a new first baseman. It may very well be that particularly after a season of winter ball, Mike Jacobs’, already an adequate first baseman, will improve enough to provide the team with a more complete package than he provided over the past two months of the season. It is certainly a very tough call for Minaya who may be able to pry someone like Sean Casey away from the Reds. If, however, a trade for Casey or someone like requires the Mets to part with real prospects, Jacobs, who I think is the real deal (player of the year and believed to have the best swing in the organization) may certainly be the way to go.
Catcher needs an upgrade and while I am one who believes that Mike Piazza still has something to give, if only on a part time basis, I nevertheless believe that catcher is the one position that the Mets should be willing to spend their money. The Padres’ Ramon Hernandez will be a free agent this winter and is someone who would certainly fit well into the team’s plans.
Second base also needs an upgrade though I don’t know if (a) the Mets will be willing to retain Matsui and not play him and/or (b) whether the Mets will be able to unload the former Japanese star. New York certainly does not look like a good fit for the guy (who, I believe, can be successful in the United States) and perhaps he would be able to salvage his US career elsewhere. Assuming Matsui can be moved, the focus should be upon extracting Soriano from the Texas Rangers. I have no doubt that Soriano will prosper (not that he’s suffering all that much in Texas) by a return to New York and Willie Randolph. He is a defensive liability who would probably benefit from Willie’s attention (in much the same way that Reyes benefited from Randolph’s counsel). The question, of course, is how much Soriano will cost the Mets. The Rangers remain in desperate need of pitching to support their terrific offense and it may be that the Mets will be asked to part with Jae Seo and Aaron Heilman, among others (possibly Anderson Hernandez, as well) in order to complete a trade with Texas. I would certainly be sorry to see Heilman go, but, on balance, Soriano’s bat in a lineup with Reyes, Wright, Floyd, Beltran and Cameron would make the offense as potent as any in the NL.
Finally, counter-balancing any move to bring Soriano to the Mets would be a push by Minaya to work out a trade with Boston for Manny Ramirez. Absent including Beltran in the deal, I don’t think the Mets (or any team, for that matter) has enough pieces to complete trades for both Soriano and Ramirez. If the push were for Ramirez, it would likely cost the Mets not only the same players who would go to Texas for Soriano, but either Floyd or Cameron, as well. Honestly, I’m not sure a Ramirez trade is in the team’s best interest despite his obvious Hall of Fame numbers.
Met fans should be thrilled with all that the team accomplished this year.
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